Labor markets have been upended over the centuries by technological change. Only John Henry could compete with the steam-powered drill, and he paid dearly. In the not too distant past, there have been concerns about the impact of software and robots on wages and employment. Now the big worry is artificial intelligence.
Stanford economics PhD student Michael Webb has developed a framework that can evaluate the impact of new technologies on different occupations by matching words between patents and job descriptions. Looking at data between 1980 and 2010, he found wages and employment declined the most in jobs that were most exposed to competition from software (broadcast equipment operators) and robots (forklift drivers). These are jobs that do not require a college degree.
Based upon patents related to AI, Webb finds that the occupations most likely to be endangered include clinical laboratory technicians, chemical engineers, and optometrists. All of these jobs require post-secondary education. Overall, the risk of displacement from AI is greatest for those with college and graduate degrees.
Technical change and globalization have resulted in the loss of a number of middle class jobs. AI could be coming after the upper income brackets.
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