Saturday, February 1, 2020

Should we get used to slower growth?

Yesterday's GDP report indicated that growth slowed to 2.1% in 2019:4.  This is basically the same rate as prevailed in the last two quarters.  Most economists believe this indicates the long term growth potential for the US because (1) the economy is at full employment, (2) labor force growth is likely to remain modest because of population aging and immigration restrictions, and (3) declining productivity growth.

Will this be the new normal?  It is clear that the cut in corporate taxes in 2017 so far has not launched the GOP-promised surge in corporate investment.  The stimulus from the household tax cuts is in the rear-view mirror.  As for the Fed, it is hard to cut interest rates when rates are near zero.

Coronavirus may very well result in a dip in GDP growth in 2020:1 and election uncertainty could be a drag for the coming year.  On the plus side, 3.5 percent unemployment has resulted in rising incomes for those who have not fared well since the Great Recession.  Continuing that trend would be no small accomplishment.

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