Today we learned that employers added 145k to their payrolls while unemployment remains at historic lows. One would think that when economists gathered in San Diego last weekend for the annual meetings of the American Economic Association, it would be laissez le bon temps rouler.
Au contraire! NYT reports that many leading economists are worried that the ten year expansion is near an end. Concerns cited include large government budget deficits, trade wars and ultra-low interest rates. The low rates discourage saving. They also limit the ability of central banks to stimulate the economy in any future recession; when rates are close to zero already, you cannot lower them much more.
As of now, no prominent economists are predicting recession for 2020, but the consensus is that growth will slow down. Keep in mind that no prominent economists were predicting the market crash and subsequent recession in 2008.
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