Which employment number should we believe?

Today's headline story: payroll employment increased by only 20,000 in February.  Some in the financial press have taken this as a sign that the recovery is slowing down.  Others say the numbers are off because of the recovery from the federal shutdown.

The feds track employment with two different series and they do not always tell the same story, as this WSJ piece from yesterday explains.  It turns out that the household survey of employment showed a gain of 255,000 jobs in February and a drop in the unemployment rate from 4.0 to 3.8 percent.  The household survey has been showing slower employment growth than the payroll survey over the last six months but it now appears to be catching up.

The Fed could start raising interest rates sooner if the employment numbers grow at 300k per month. Today's report indicates that the Fed will keep its powder dry for a little bit longer.