Thursday, November 1, 2018

Is a recession on the way in 2020?

So says NYU Stern's Nouriel Roubini, who was one of the very few academic economists who correctly predicted the 2008 market meltdown and subsequent recession.  Roubini thinks that the global economy will continue to grow in 2019, thanks to strong stimulus in the US and China.  But in 2020 he says "conditions will be ripe for a financial crisis followed by a global recession."

His reasons for concern include the end of fiscal stimulus in the US, higher interest rates, tariffs and the resulting uncertainty in global investment, and overpriced stocks.   Roubini also fears that debt levels will be so high that tax cuts and government spending increases will not be viable policy options.  That could mean the 2020 meltdown, if it happens, could be more severe and longer than the Great Recession.

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