Who has the upper hand in China-US tariff war?

Headline in yesterday's WSJ "White House Sees Edge in China Talks."  Ok, what's the secret sauce for the USA?  Is it the availability of close substitutes for Chinese imports or superior negotiating savvy?

No, it is nothing that subtle.  Instead the White House argument boils down to this: the US exports relatively little ($129.9b) to the US whereas Chinese exports to the US are HHUUGGEE ($505.5b)!  So US tariffs can inflict more damage on the Chinese than Chinese tariffs can inflict on the US.

Problem with this line of reasoning: the costs of a tariff war fall much more heavily on US consumers of imported goods than on US exporters impacted by Chinese tariffs.  With a 25% tariff, not only does the price of imports go up by that amount but domestic producers raise their prices by the same amount.

Bottom line: the pain of a tariff war with China will be asymmetric, with US consumers bearing most of the damage in terms of higher prices and less variety.