Even health economists have trouble choosing the right plan

Austin Frakt has a PhD in statistical and applied mathematics from MIT and has published in the New England Journal of Medicine and the Journal of the American Medical Association.  In other words, a real intellectual heavyweight.  Yet he confesses in an NYT blog post: "I am a health economist, and I cannot rationally select a health plan."

The reasons are pretty simple.  First, the plans are maddeningly complex.  It is relatively easy to see the rates, deductibles and copays (I am not saying easy, just easy compared to what comes next) but very tough to figure out what you are actually buying.  Which medical conditions are covered and which are not?  If you need medical services, which providers are included in the network covered by the plan?

Second, you must buy the plan based on a forecast of what health services you think you will need in the coming year.  Some are predictable (e.g., annual checkups) but many (perhaps most) are not.

Expect this issue to receive more attention in the future as more and more companies get out of the business of providing employee health insurance.  Today's WSJ has a piece on how more and more small companies are doing this.

#WhyMBA competition @ BusinessWeek

As a lead-in to its full-time MBA rankings announcement Nov. 11, Bloomberg Businessweek has launched a #WhyMBA competition on Twitter.  Students and alums at all MBA programs have been encouraged to post tweets explaining what makes their school special.  Schools are ranked on tweet volume; right now NC State's Jenkins MBA is #57.  UNC-CH is #60.

What makes NC State so special?  Great value. ROI.  Real world experience.  Community service. Click here to see all the tweets.

I encourage all members of the NC State Jenkins MBA community to join the #WhyMBA discussion.  Let's aim for top 50 for both the tweet count and the actual program ranking!

Wake Forest drops full-time MBA program

Wake Forest announced Wednesday that it will no longer admit students to its full-time MBA program.  The class admitted this fall will finish in spring 2016.  Faculty will be redeployed to other programs -- undergraduate business, a one year MA in Management, and the Professional MBA.

Like many other smaller MBA programs, WF had seen a significant drop in enrollment, from 240 in the 1990s to 114 now.  With better growth opportunities in the evening and Saturday MBA, the school decided to focus its resources on programs with more upside potential.

Poets and Quants interviewed WF dean Charles Iacovou:

Asked why he believes there is declining interest in full-time MBA programs, Iacovou cited the proliferation of one-year specialized master’s degrees and the increasing demand for more flexible programs. “The change is coming from the students themselves. They are choosing to receive an MBA differently than they had. Many of them don’t want to walk away from income or they choose to get more specialized degrees." 

Two reactions:  

1) I am not surprised to see a well-regarded school drop its full-time MBA program.  The market remains strong for the 15-20 largest schools but the remainder are fighting over a shrinking pool of applicants.  I am surprised that WF made this decision when it did, just after moving into a new facility.  But they will have company.  Soon.

2) NC State has long relied on Working Professionals who want classes in the evening and online.  We are looking to create a more flexible program where students can take both face-to-face and online classes as needed.  

A first sign of wage growth

Numbers about the labor market continue to send mixed messages.  The unemployment rate is down to 5.9 percent, a level last seen in summer 2008.  In contrast the employment-population ratio dropped from 63 per cent in early 2008 to 58.5 percent by fall 2009 and has not recovered since (still at 59.0 percent).  So is the labor market back to full employment, as the unemployment data indicate, or is there still a significant excess supply of potential workers?

A key signal, many observers feel, is what will happen to wages as output expands.  If those out of the labor force are really just like the unemployed, employers will be able to fill new positions without having to raise salaries.  On the other hand, if those who have left are out for good and we really are near full employment, then salaries will need to increase.

It is too early to know which interpretation will turn out to be correct.  Last week WSJ reported rising "manufacturing wages ... in some major industrial states as shortages of certain skills ... force more companies to pay up to attract and retain workers."

However, most jobs are in the service sector.  When we hear about Walmart having trouble getting greeters and cashiers, we will know for sure that the labor market is getting near capacity.

N&O features NC State MBA career coach John Hutchings

Today's Raleigh N&O has a long story providing advice about how to work a job fair.  The first person quoted and the person who appeared to be quoted the most (because he is THE expert) is our own John Hutchings, associate director of career development in the NC State Jenkins MBA.

Career development support is a key difference between a good MBA program and a great one.  Most MBA programs for part-time students provide little, if any, of this support.  John has been with NC State's MBA program for six years and he has become the go-to guy for career advice for working professional MBAs.

Going to a career fair soon?  John has the following pointers:

• Research carefully the companies you are interested in.  Don't just look at the web page; use Linked In to network with employees.
• Dress professionally, even if the interviewers are wearing polo shirts.  
• Tailor your resume for each company that you are excited about contacting.  

How soon before we choose our own cable bundle?

The recent announcements by CBS and HBO to start selling content directly to consumers mark the beginning of the end for the bundling of cable TV stations.  Now consumers can choose between different tiers of programming but are locked into all channels within a tier.  Time Warner Cable in Cary NC has starter TV with 20+ channels (mostly local channels and CSPAN), standard TV with 70+ channels and preferred TV with 200+ channels.

The average person ends up paying for lots of channels that are never watched.  Cable cutters have moved to Hulu, Netflix and Amazon Prime.  These outlets provide plenty of content but they do not include (1) live sports and (2) the latest shows on premium channels.  This is now changing; it will not be long before the other major networks and premium channels match CBS and HBO.

The tough question: will buying the stations you want a la carte save you money?  This WSJ piece argues that the answer will be yes in a single person household where only a few channels get watched.  But in a multi-generational household with varying tastes, the old cable bundle may start to look pretty good.

Another key issue: households still need an internet connection to watch online content, even if they drop cable.  Is there enough competition between cable, DSL and satellite broadband services to keep internet subscription costs down?  If not, cable companies will raise their fees for internet service to make up for lost revenue from cable channels.

Finally, if cable cutting becomes widespread then expect many channels to vanish (will we be able to survive without VH1 Classic?) and others have to raise prices significantly to cover costs. ESPN collects about $5.50 from every cable customer, regardless of whether they ever watch it.  The unbundled version will create pain: either it will end up costing a lot more or college and professional sports may have to learn to get by on less revenue.

Amazon security vs. worker rights -- which will give?

The Supreme Court heard arguments Wednesday on whether Amazon should be required to pay workers for time they spend in line going through security clearances as they leave work (BBW account here).  Right now this time is unpaid and workers complain of wait times of up to 30 minutes.  Since Amazon does not have to compensate its workers for this time, it has no incentive to invest in quicker, more expensive inspection techniques.  Interestingly, the Obama administration is supporting Amazon!

There is no legal precedent that readily applies.  Workers cannot be paid for commuting time, which makes sense because workers make choices about how close they live to their job.  Workers have no choice about the inspections, a factor that may weigh in their favor.  But of course airport passengers have no choice about the TSA!

A key issue, BBW argues, is whether the time in line is "integral and indispensable" to essential work activities.  Butchers have to be paid for time spent sharpening knives; in some occupations where workers are exposed to hazardous materials, workers get paid for time spent cleaning up.

Apparently Amazon has other unique workplace policies, such as no lipstick and no watches, because of their concern about employee theft.  

What does the future hold for full-time MBAs outside the top 20?

In an interview with P&Q, outgoing Pitt dean John Delaney thinks the future will not be pretty.   He sees a lot of programs with 60 or fewer students total and questions their ability to survive.  The applicant pool keeps getting smaller and younger.  Many of these schools are offering financial aid to most (and in a few cases, ALL) of their full-timers.   Those that do not have a generous alumni base or a successful exec ed revenue stream will have trouble maintaining this level of aid support.

Tough question: what will determine which programs fold and which prosper?  I see three factors:
#1) Location: Some very good universities are located in very remote areas.  This is a hindrance for an MBA program where networking with the business community is a key element of the degree's ROI.
#2) Differentiation: All too many MBA programs are clones of each other.  Could you tell the difference between the Georgetown and Georgia MBA programs if you just looked at the list of courses and requirements?
#3) Experiential learning: Programs that focus on textbooks and historical cases will lose market share to those where students work in teams that consult with real companies on live cases.  The students with hands-on experience will be better trained and will have better networking opportunities.

NC State's Jenkins MBA is well-positioned on all three fronts.  We are located in one of the best places to live and work in the country.  We have followed a differentiation strategy focusing on innovation.  And the program is extremely experiential, perhaps more so than any other program in the country.  Maybe that is why we are rising in the rankings and enrollment numbers for 2015 are looking very, very good?