One more complication: Portugal, Italy, Ireland, and Spain (with Greece known collectively as the PIIGS) are not in dramatically better shape than Greece. Morgenson notes that European banks are holding a much higher percentage of their assets in sovereign bonds than did American banks hold in mortgage-related securities three years ago.
Regulators encouraged European banks to hold huge amounts of European government debt by letting them account for these investments as if they posed zero risk. That meant the banks didn’t need to set aside a single euro in capital against those holdings.Why should we care about European banks? Quite simply because many of them have a large presence here in the US and their difficulties will translate into a reduction in the availability of credit.
Now, according to an analysis by Autonomous Research, 43 large European banks hold debt in troubled sovereigns that is equal to 63 percent of those institutions’ book values.
You are right that things could get ugly after a Greek default although I wonder sometimes if they are just making things worse by dragging things out as long as they have. Investors may never look at sovereign debt the same way after the events of the past year or so.
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