NC State wins another competition

Kudos to the NC State team Cardinal Marketing Group for winning the Brand North Carolina Strategy Case competition.  MBA students Annie Bishop, Meagan Sams and Lauren Wright teamed with Master of Global Innovation Management study Christie Montague to take first place and the $5000 prize.  The competition was keen, with 106 total entries.  Of the 10 finalists, three were from NC State and all were affiliated with the Consumer Innovation Consortium.

Perils in big data

Worthwhile FT piece by economist Tim Harford about the big data phenomenon.  Make no mistake -- the availability of terrabytes of data on all things imaginable will eventually lead to exciting breakthroughs.  Harford's concern goes back to the old question of correlation versus causation.  Just because two variables appear together at a relatively high frequency, it does not mean that one causes the other.  And even if there was causation, it is hard to tell which way causality runs.

Another challenge is whether the correlation is spurious because it is based on biased data.  Harford notes this is a particular challenge for data sources such as Twitter, whose users do not represent the overall population.  Money quote:

“Big data” has arrived, but big insights have not. The challenge now is to solve new problems and gain new answers – without making the same old statistical mistakes on a grander scale than ever.

MBA students at NC State are getting training on a wide range of tools for analyzing big data, but they also are getting the theoretical insight they will need to make sense of the results they obtain.  

Rich and poor both getting richer

Are the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer?  That's what a regular consumer of mainstream media would guess.  Trouble is, it's only half correct as a recent Congressional Budget Office analysis of Census data shows.  Between 1979 and 2010, income for households in the bottom 80% of the income distribution increased by 36 to 49 percent.  Growth for the top 20% was higher -- over 60 percent, with the top 1% seeing 200 percent gains.  

The CBO narrative for the lower and middle income brackets is more positive than what you have heard elsewhere for two reasons: (1) it takes into account taxes; (2) it adds in income from the entire range of government benefits.  The latter include "Social Security, unemployment insurance, Supplemental Security Income, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (and its predecessor, Aid to Families with Dependent Children), veterans’ programs, workers’ compensation, state and local government assistance programs ... [plus] ... the value of in-kind benefits: Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program vouchers (popularly known as food stamps); school lunches and breakfasts; housing assistance; and energy assistance and benefits provided by Medicare, Medicaid, and the Children’s Health Insurance Program."

How satisfied are execs with MBAs?

Poets and Quants reports that Hult Labs (affiliated with Hult International Business School) recently did a study "What Employers Want" focusing on how well business schools were meeting employer needs.  They interviewed 90 C-suite execs, managers and academics to gather their impressions about MBA programs.  There were three major concerns raised:
1.  Metrics: schools use grades to measure academic performance but they do not measure whether students are gaining skills in such critical areas as communication, leadership or team skills.
2.  Emphasis: MBA programs do a good job teaching traditional subjects such as finance and marketing but fall down in 10 areas: self-awareness, integrity, cross-cultural competency, team skills, critical thinking, communication, comfort with ambiguity and uncertainty, creativity, execution, and sales.
3. Theory vs. Practice: those surveyed think there is too much theory and not much application in most MBA programs.

My take: NC State's Jenkins MBA has a distinctive approach to management education that emphasizes applied learning.  All students must now complete a semester-long project sponsored by a real organization that forces them to apply theory from the classroom.  The program also provides strong training in most of the 10 areas cited above and is looking how to improve in all areas.  So in 2 of the 3 areas cited we are in much better shape than most business schools.  Alas we do give grades and probably should consider how to get real time feedback to students throughout the program on their communication and interpersonal skills.

The downside of cleaner vehicles: less gas tax revenue

The local N&O ran a front page story today about a dilemma facing federal and state governments.  They all use a gasoline tax to fund highway construction and maintenance.  Because of a combination of people driving less and cars getting more gas mileage, gas taxes are not generating enough revenue to cover highway costs.  Also the gas tax hits different road users in very different ways; if you own an electric vehicle you pay no tax, even if you use the roads as much as someone driving a truck or SUV.

The options are not attractive for policy makers.  One approach is to continue to raise gas taxes.  Another is to change the system and charge users by the mile driven.  This can be done via high tech (GPS) or low (annual odometer checks).  NC State experts are advising the state on another option: congestion pricing on urban freeways.

NC State faculty research in the news

My NC State colleagues David Henard and Christian Rossetti just had a paper come out in the Journal of Advertising Research that is getting international attention.  Titled "All You Need is Love? Communication Insights from Pop Music's Number One Hits," the paper has been featured in stories not just in the US, but also in the UK and Australia.

Henard and Rossetti find that the theme of popular hits has changed over the last 50 years.  Rebellion was in the air in the 1960s and 1970s (I know, I was there -- "Tear Down the Wall," as the Jefferson Airplane sang).   Today themes revolve more along desperation and inspiration (e.g., "Happy"), perhaps a reaction to 9/11.

Henard and Rossetti focus on number one hits.  It would be interesting to see if the results could be generalized; some of the most enduring music never hits the top of the charts (ask Neil Young who has had one number one in his lifetime)  Alternate acts like Bon Iver and Grizzly Bear have been used by Bushmills and Volkswagen to push product.  I am guessing rebellion is pretty strong no longer how you slice the 1960s data; I also am guessing romance has enduring power across the ages from Marvin Gaye's "Let's Get It On" to Drake's "Hold On, We're Going Home."

How best to help low-wage workers

President Obama has made two proposals to help low-wage workers: an increase in the minimum wage and expansions in eligibility for overtime.  On the minimum wage front, he already has increased it for federal contractors and wants Congress to approve a $10.10 minimum wage for all.  Economists are fairly split on the merits of increasing the minimum wage; to get a good idea of how split see these two links from Greg Mankiw (hundreds are in favor, hundreds are opposed).

As for overtime, employers hire workers as long as the extra revenue they generate offsets the cost of the worker.  Employees with supervisory responsibilities are not eligible for overtime if they make more than $455 a week.  Obama has directed the Department of Labor to raise that threshold so that more become eligible for overtime.  Once again economists have a split opinion on the desirability of this policy.  A reasonable case can be made that this would have zero impact.  Employers could offset the increased overtime costs by slowing the growth of base pay and cutting employee benefits.  Those who lack the flexibility to cut pay and benefits will trim back on overtime hours and employment.  The federal government can set pay rules, but it cannot repeal the law of marginal cost equalling marginal revenue.

The Earned Income Tax Credit is another mechanism for helping low-wage workers, as Princeton economist Alan Blinder argues in this recent WSJ op-ed.  This policy receives nearly universal support from economists.  However it is not so popular in Washington because it forces the federal government to come up with the extra cash for low-wage workers instead of trying to stick employers with the bill.

Student loans: more than meets the eye

Things we know: there is more than $1tr in student loan debt; a higher percentage of student loans are 90 days past due than credit card, auto or mortgage debt.  The popular press would have us believe that this is the result of rising tuition.

Reality is much more complicated, as a recent WSJ piece indicates.  Student loans are designed to cover tuition and living expenses.  The terms are relatively attractive and there is little to no screening for credit worthiness.  So student debt can be used to cover everyday expenses when there are no other funding sources available.  WSJ profiled one young man who was unemployed and signed up for part-time community college courses so he could borrow enough money to pay his rent.  A sad case, to be sure, but probably not what the designers of the student loan program had in mind.

If you take out an auto loan or mortgage, you get asked a series of questions designed to gauge the likelihood that you will pay the loan back.  The questions that should be asked about student loans -- which would reflect the odds of completing a program and the success of its graduates -- would shake the world of higher education to its very core.

More great ranking news for NC State Jenkins MBA

The US News MBA rankings came out today and, once again, the NC State Jenkins MBA is moving up.  The full-time program moved up 23 spots from #88 last year to #65 this year; the part-time program moved up 12 spots from #73 to #61.  According to Poets and Quants, only one other program made a bigger jump upward.

Why did the ranking go up?  On the full-time side there was improvement across the board: higher recruiter assessment score, higher starting salary and bonus, higher placement rates, higher GPA and GMAT, and more selective admissions.  On the part-time side the incoming class had more work experience.  Among local part-time programs, NC State ranks ahead of Elon (#77), UNC-Greensboro (#80), UNC-Wilmington (#175), Fayetteville State (#184) and East Carolina (#196).

Big changes for SAT; is GMAT next?

Today's big news story in higher education is the significant changes planned for the SAT.  The exam will make the essay optional, drop obscure vocabulary words, and no longer penalize for guessing the wrong answer.  Make no mistake -- none of this would be happening if the SAT had not been losing market share to the ACT.  Competition in the testing market will hopefully yield a better predictor of college performance.

But I would not be so sure.  The SAT now better measures knowledge obtained in high school.  But the main reason we have the SAT in the first place is that high school grades are a far from perfect predictor of college grades.  By testing different types of mathematical and verbal skills, it provided an independent measure of college potential, a second chance for students who had a bad year or two in high school.

The GMAT is facing a similar problem, losing market share as more schools (including NC State) accept the GRE or waive test scores for some applicants (e.g., those with masters degrees).  Poets and Quants reports that the volume of GMAT test takers dropped by 17% in 2013.

A testing operation has to add value to admissions decisions.  The GMAT works well for quant skills and deductive logic, not so well for leadership and communications.  If employers continue to take the former as a given for any MBA and place more emphasis on the latter, expect GMAT to either adapt or be replaced by other predictors.

NC State Jenkins MBA featured in Poets and Quants

Poet and Quants is a blog that regularly reports news about the world's most respected MBA programs.  Today P&Q posted a lengthy article about NC State's Jenkins MBA, highlighting our technology emphasis and industry partnerships.  Well worth reading!

Should employers be asking job applicants for SAT scores?

Today's WSJ discusses how employers are asking job applicants to submit their SAT scores.  The SAT is designed to predict academic performance in the first year of college.  So how could such scores inform hiring decisions, especially for experienced employees who took the test decades ago?

Not many employees spend their time calculating the area of a triangle or doing sentence completion exercises (unless their job is to write SAT questions for the College Board). Managers might logically use the SAT if they thought it predicted job performance, but a well run company would do a validation study to make sure this is an evidence-based decision.  Google used to use GPAs and the SAT but stopped the practice two years ago because they were poor predictors.

Will your pilot soon be earning the minimum wage?

The labor market for airline pilots is going through some unexpected turbulence.  Recently WSJ reported that a combination of boomer retirements and new training requirements (1500 hours of flight experience compared to 250 originally) were causing some regional airlines to drop their least profitable flights.  Aspiring pilots can amass tens of thousands of dollars in debt to get the flight time needed to meet the training requirements.  So why do they do this, especially since regional airline pilots earn an average salary of $22,400 and some earn only about $15k?

The answer -- eventually the pilots hope to land a position with a major carrier that pays well into six figures.  That is why they are willing to accept positions that barely pay more than the current minimum wage (and would be below the aspirational minimum wage of the Obama administration).   My expectation: expect to see salaries for regional pilots increase as always happens when there is a shortage and markets are allowed to operate.

Economic impact of Comcast - TWC merger

Take two cable monopolists, combine them and stir.  How does this change:

• Consumer choices: Not at all.  You are still going to be stuck with one cable option for television.  You will have Direct TV and Dish as satellite options and in many areas AT&T U-verse through your phone wire (if you have one).  Comcast and TWC do not compete in any market head to head.  Both are notorious for abysmal consumer service and negligible innovation; no reason to expect any improvement here.  
• Prices: Possibly a plus.  By combining overhead functions, the merger should produce some economies of scale.  More importantly, the combined company will have more bargaining power with content providers.  People see the rising cable bills year after year and blame the cable provider; they do not see the upward ratchets in content costs, so they give Walt Disney (owner of ESPN) and NBC Universal (owner of Weather Channel, along with Blackstone and Bain) a pass.  
• Internet speed: If you are thinking about cutting the cable cord, realize that in most places the cable company is likely to be your fastest source for internet.  Triple play pricing makes the cost of basic cable plus internet not all that much higher than basic cable by itself.  Pray that Google Fiber will come to your town soon.  
• Number of cable subscriptions: Still likely to fall.  Too much good stuff for free or at low cost on the internet; sports is the only exception and you have to think ESPN and the major networks will soon figure out a way to sell sporting events on the spot market instead of sticking to the cable bundle.  

Another blow to the UAW

The last 40 years have been pretty tough for the American Big 3 automakers and the United Auto Workers.  First came Japanese imports, followed by outsourcing and Japanese and European transplants.  Once the Big 3 and UAW had a monopoly chokehold on the auto consumer; now their market share is well below 50%.

The UAW's only hope for survival is to organize the transplants.  They had a golden opportunity with the Volkswagen plant in Chattanooga.  Volkswagen offered no resistance to the UAW; in fact, they gave it an open mike to promote itself.  But just like a Road Runner cartoon, the outcome in Chattanooga was the same as in other big union organizing campaigns -- the workers chose to remain nonunion (WSJ report here).

In retrospect, the outcome is no real surprise.  VW workers were earning almost as much as their Big 3 counterparts (new hires at VW actually make more than their Big 3 counterparts), so why pay union dues?  Also for better or worse, the UAW has earned an anti-management reputation and receives much of the blame for the demise of the Big 3.  (Aside: making lousy cars also played a role.)  Bottom line: the VW workers weren't buying what the UAW was selling.

What would happen with a $10.10 minimum wage?

Yesterday the Congressional Budget Office issued a report on what would likely happen to American labor markets if the federal minimum wage were increased from its current value of $7.25 to $10.10 by 2016.  Two conclusions have received considerable attention in the press: (1) there would be 500k fewer jobs and (2) the number of persons living in poverty would fall by 900k.

It is easy to reconcile the two results.  Some workers would get raises and there are enough workers making between $7.25 and $10.10 who will keep their jobs to offset the income loss associated with those who lose their jobs.  Interestingly CBO notes that only 19% of the wage increases will go to persons who reside in households with a living standard below the poverty line.  In contrast 30% of the wage increases will go to persons who reside in households with income three times higher (or more) than the poverty level; these would be secondary earners in such households.

The CBO analysis appears to omit to other key elements of a minimum wage increase: reduced profits of business owners (some of whom are struggling) and higher prices charged to customers.

Lessons from a MOOC @ Chicago Booth

John Cochrane, a finance professor at Chicago-Booth runs a blog he calls The Grumpy Economist, which is well worth a look once or twice a week.  Cochrane taught a MOOC last fall on "Asset Pricing" at the PhD level.  The course lasted nine weeks; students were expected to work 10-15 hours each week.  Reflecting on his experience in this post called "Mooconomics," Cochrane makes these points

• Fixed costs are very, very high
• The Coursera software for assessments is limited to multiple choice and numerical answers
• Faculty need help with instructional design, video and IT to make the transition
• The "flipped classroom" worked very well with his on campus students who studied the videos before class 
• Look out faculty!  Money quote: 

But a warning to faculty: Teaching the flipped classroom is a lot harder! The old model, we pretend to teach, you pretend to learn, filling the board with equations or droning on for an hour and a half, is really easy compared to guiding a good discussion or working on some problems together.

With high fixed costs and zero revenue, Cochrane asks how can universities monetize their MOOC investments.  One possibility is that MOOCs replace textbooks and schools charge other schools to use their materials.  Another is that universities will use MOOCs to build brand awareness and closer relationships with alumni.  The fixed costs will be high, but then again football teams, libraries and labs aren't cheap either.

Dealing with long term unemployment

Ran across this worthwhile piece by Bloomberg columnist Megan McArdle a couple of days ago where she discusses the question of what we should be doing to reduce the severe problem of long term unemployment.  We still have 3.6 million people who have been out of work for 6 months or more.  Should we be supporting them by extending unemployment benefits?  Or should we be creating incentives that would be creating more opportunities for them to be hired?

McArdle cites research by Alan Krueger (just returned to Princeton after two years being Obama's top economic advisor) that shows what happens to the newly unemployed.  At first they intensively search for positions.  Then once they have tapped out their network, most become passive waiting for something to come along.  Finally there is another burst of intense search as benefits run out.

Why does search effort follow this pattern?  Some might see it as a rational response to poor market opportunities; faced with a tough market, why spend tons of time beating one's head against the wall.  Others would see it as a rational response to living off the dole; this could very well be true in Europe where the ratio of benefits to lost salary income is fairly high (however, in the US benefits replace less than half of income).  Krueger found that heightened anxiety may play the most important role; rejection is unpleasant and a less intensive job search means fewer fruitless encounters with potential employers.

One idea that merits consideration, McArdle argues, is the Danish system where the long term unemployed have to accept job retraining.  Other options include tax credits to firms that hire the long term unemployed or grants to individuals who leave high unemployment regions to take jobs elsewhere.

Valentine's Day economics

Two great links to share on VDay:
1)  Stanford b-school economist Paul Oyer shares his thoughts in NYT on how to use economic reasoning to become a better valentine with three tips:

• Signal your love -- don't get generic gifts like roses or candy; instead do something special for your sweetie such as cooking a favorite dish
• Invest in yourself -- make yourself a better mate, either by getting more training and education so that your earnings power is enhanced or by enhancing your appearance to make your baby's eye candy all that much sweeter
• Love the one you're with -- economics is all about optimization but too many people mistakenly think the proverbial grass may be greener and do not understand the costs and risks involved.

2) My colleague Craig Newmark found this story containing 14 Valentine's that economists might send (but hopefully only if their loved one is an economist as well).  My favorite:

The S&P was in the red,But I wasn't blue,Because I shorted the market, And went long on you.  

Still lots of prime age men without jobs

Last week's WSJ has a long front page story on a trend that needs to be getting more attention: the steady decline in the percentage of 25 to 54 year old men who are jobless.  Here are the facts: in the early 1970s only 6% were jobless, a percentage that increased to 13% in 2007 just before the Great Recession.  The jobless rate peaked at 20% in 2009 and now sits at 17%.

There are a few partial explanations: more students attending graduate school, a higher incarceration rate and a larger percentage on disability (although the direction of causality on the latter is far from clear; are more people getting sick or injured or have disability claims have risen because of poor job prospects?).  Another possible culprit is declining inflation-adjusted wages.  Prime age men do not usually qualify for income maintenance programs other than disability.

So what to these idle men do all day?

Surveys find that most of the jobless spend their days in the same way working men spend their weekends -- watching TV, working out, sleeping.  

The story then goes in depth into the situations of four different men.  In each case there is a common thread: initially in a job that is a good fit with their training and experience, each experienced a layoff over the last few years and was unable to get any traction in the job market afterwards.